Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 to 2019: A three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°×0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature ≥95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration ≥2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68-1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950-194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170-300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess deaths per 10 million residents per warm season declined by 7.2% per decade in comparison to the 30-year average. Locations with the highest heatwave-related death ratio and rate were in Southern and Eastern Europe or areas had polar and alpine climates, and/or their residents had high incomes. The temporal change of heatwave-related mortality burden showed geographic disparities, such that locations with tropical climate or low incomes were observed with the greatest decline. The main limitation of this study was the lack of data from certain regions, e.g., Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves were associated with substantial mortality burden that varied spatiotemporally over the globe in the past 30 years. The findings indicate the potential benefit of governmental actions to enhance health sector adaptation and resilience, accounting for inequalities across communities.

Accountability analysis of health benefits related to National Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in China.

China is one of the largest producers and consumers of coal in the world. The National Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in China (2013-2017) particularly aimed to reduce emissions from coal combustion. Here, we show whether the acute health effects of PM2.5 changed from 2013 to 2018 and factors that might account for any observed changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and the surrounding areas where there were major reductions in PM2.5 concentrations. We used a two-stage analysis strategy, with a quasi-Poisson regression model and a random effects meta-analysis, to assess the effects of PM2.5 on mortality in the 47 counties of BTH. We found that the mean daily PM2.5 levels and the SO42- component ratio dramatically decreased in the study period, which was likely related to the control of coal emissions. Subsequently, the acute effects of PM2.5 were significantly decreased for total and circulatory mortality. A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations was associated with a 0.16% (95% CI: 0.08, 0.24%) and 0.02% (95% CI: -0.09, 0.13%) increase in mortality from 2013 to 2015 and from 2016 to 2018, respectively. The changes in air pollution sources or PM2.5 components appeared to have played a core role in reducing the health effects. The air pollution control measures implemented recently targeting coal emissions taken in China may have resulted in significant health benefits.

Multimorbidity and emergency hospitalisations during hot weather.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic diseases are a commonly listed heat-vulnerable group in heat-health action plans. While prior research identifies multiple health conditions that may increase vulnerability to ambient heat, there is minimal evidence regarding the implications of multimorbidity (two or more chronic diseases). METHODS: From the statewide hospital registry of Queensland, Australia, we identified people aged ≥15 years who had emergency hospitalisation(s) between March 2004 and April 2016 and previously had 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 of five chronic diseases: cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental disorders, asthma/COPD, and chronic kidney disease. We conducted time-stratified case-crossover analyses to estimate the odds ratio of hospitalisations associated with ambient heat exposure in people with different numbers, types, and combinations of chronic diseases. Ambient heat exposure was defined as a 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature above the median. FINDINGS: There were 2,263,427 emergency hospitalisations recorded (48.7% in males and 51.3% in females). When the mean temperature increased, hospitalisation odds increased with chronic disease number, particularly in older persons (≥65 years), males, and non-indigenous people. For instance, in older persons with 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 chronic diseases, the odds ratios associated with ambient heat exposure were 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.04), 1.06 (1.02, 1.09), 1.08 (1.02, 1.14), and 1.13 (1.07, 1.19), respectively. Among the chronic diseases, chronic kidney disease, and asthma/COPD, either existing alone, together, or in combination with other diseases, were associated with the highest odds of hospitalisations under ambient heat exposure. INTERPRETATION: While individuals with multimorbidity are considered in heat-health action plans, this study suggests the need to consider specifically examining them as a distinct and vulnerable subgroup. FUNDING: Wellcome.

Body mass index, waist circumference, and mortality in subjects older than 80 years: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Emerging evidence has raised an obesity paradox in observational studies of body mass index (BMI) and health among the oldest-old (aged ≥80 years), as an inverse relationship of BMI with mortality was reported. This study was to investigate the causal associations of BMI, waist circumference (WC), or both with mortality in the oldest-old people in China. METHODS: A total of 5306 community-based oldest-old (mean age 90.6 years) were enrolled in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) between 1998 and 2018. Genetic risk scores were constructed from 58 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with BMI and 49 SNPs associated with WC to subsequently derive causal estimates for Mendelian randomization (MR) models. One-sample linear MR along with non-linear MR analyses were performed to explore the associations of genetically predicted BMI, WC, and their joint effect with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and non-CVD mortality. RESULTS: During 24 337 person-years of follow-up, 3766 deaths were documented. In observational analyses, higher BMI and WC were both associated with decreased mortality risk [hazard ratio (HR) 0.963, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.955-0.971 for a 1-kg/m2 increment of BMI and HR 0.971 (95% CI 0.950-0.993) for each 5 cm increase of WC]. Linear MR models indicated that each 1 kg/m2 increase in genetically predicted BMI was monotonically associated with a 4.5% decrease in all-cause mortality risk [HR 0.955 (95% CI 0.928-0.983)]. Non-linear curves showed the lowest mortality risk at the BMI of around 28.0 kg/m2, suggesting that optimal BMI for the oldest-old may be around overweight or mild obesity. Positive monotonic causal associations were observed between WC and all-cause mortality [HR 1.108 (95% CI 1.036-1.185) per 5 cm increase], CVD mortality [HR 1.193 (95% CI 1.064-1.337)], and non-CVD mortality [HR 1.110 (95% CI 1.016-1.212)]. The joint effect analyses indicated that the lowest risk was observed among those with higher BMI and lower WC. CONCLUSIONS: Among the oldest-old, opposite causal associations of BMI and WC with mortality were observed, and a body figure with higher BMI and lower WC could substantially decrease the mortality risk. Guidelines for the weight management should be cautiously designed and implemented among the oldest-old people, considering distinct roles of BMI and WC.

Medium-term exposure to size-fractioned particulate matter and asthma exacerbations in China: A longitudinal study of asthmatics with poor medication adherence.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that short- and long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) can increase the risk of asthma morbidity and mortality. However, the effect of medium-term exposure remains unknown. We aim to examine the effect of medium-term exposure to size-fractioned PM on asthma exacerbations among asthmatics with poor medication adherence. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal study in China based on the National Mobile Asthma Management System Project that specifically and routinely followed asthma exacerbations in asthmatics with poor medication adherence from April 2017 to May 2019. High-resolution satellite remote-sensing data were used to estimate each participant's medium-term exposure (on average 90 days) to size-fractioned PM (PM1, PM2.5, and PM10) based on the residential address and the date of the follow-up when asthma exacerbations (e.g., hospitalizations and emergency room visits) occurred or the end of the follow-up. The Cox proportional hazards model was employed to examine the hazard ratio of asthma exacerbations associated with each PM after controlling for sex, age, BMI, education level, geographic region, and temperature. RESULTS: Modelling results revealed nonlinear exposure-response associations of asthma exacerbations with medium-term exposure to PM1, PM2.5, and PM10. Specifically, for emergency room visits, we found an increased hazard ratio for PM1 above 22.8 µg/m3 (1.060, 95 % CI: 1.025-1.096, per 1 µg/m3 increase), PM2.5 above 38.2 µg/m3 (1.032, 95 % CI: 1.010-1.054), and PM10 above 78.6 µg/m3 (1.019, 95 % CI: 1.006-1.032). For hospitalizations, we also found an increased hazard ratio for PM1 above 20.3 µg/m3 (1.055, 95 % CI: 1.001-1.111) and PM2.5 above 39.2 µg/m3 (1.038, 95 % CI: 1.003-1.074). Furthermore, the effects of PM were greater for a longer exposure window (90-180 days) and among participants with a high BMI. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that medium-term exposure to PM is associated with an increased risk of asthma exacerbations in asthmatics with poor medication adherence, with a higher risk from smaller PM.

Association between exposure to chemical mixtures and epigenetic ageing biomarkers: Modifying effects of thyroid hormones and physical activity.

Evidence on the effects of internal chemical mixture exposures on biological age is limited. It also remains unclear whether hormone homeostasis and lifestyle factors can modify such a relationship. Based on the Biomarkers for Air Pollutants Exposure (BAPE) study, which involved healthy older adults aged 60-69 years in China, we found that chemical mixture exposures, including metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), phthalates (PAEs), and organophosphate esters (OPEs), were significantly associated with shortened DNAmTL and accelerated SkinBloodClock, in which PFASs and OPEs in blood were the primary contributors to DNAmTL, while metals and PAEs had relatively higher contributions in urine. Furthermore, lower levels of thyroxin appeared to exacerbate the adverse effects of environmental chemicals on epigenetic ageing but relatively higher levels of physical activity had the beneficial impact. These findings may have important implications for the development of healthy ageing strategy and aged care policy, particularly in light of the global acceleration of population ageing.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. METHODS: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. FINDINGS: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. INTERPRETATION: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.

Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. FINDINGS: The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. INTERPRETATION: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates. FUNDING: The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.

Effects of climate and environment on migratory old people with allergic diseases in China: Protocol for a Sanya cohort study.

Background: Several studies have reported that the mountain climate can alleviate asthma, however, the effect of tropical climate on migratory elderly, especially in people with respiratory or allergic diseases is unknown. Objectives: This cohort study aims to explore impact of climate and environmental changes on allergic diseases in migratory old people. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, we recruited 750 older migratory people, the majority of whom were homeowners to minimize the risk of loss to follow up. The study's inclusion criteria were elderly individuals had moved from northern China to Sanya and suffered from either asthma or allergic diseases. Prior to participation, these individuals provided informed consent and underwent baseline assessment. Subsequently, they will be followed for three years. A face-to-face interview was conducted to gather information regarding their living environment and habits. Trained investigators administered the questionnaires and performed physical examinations including height, weight, and blood pressure, while a professional respiratory doctor conducted pulmonary function tests. Blood samples were promptly tested routine blood test, liver function, kidney function, glucose, triglyceride, allergens, and inflammatory factors. Climate and environmental data were obtained from Sanya Meteorological Bureau and Ecological Environment Bureau, respectively. We primarily compared the differences of participants with asthma or allergic diseases between northern China and Sanya in southern China by Chi-square test, t-test or Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Findings: A total of 750 participants were recruited in this cohort from fourteen communities. All participants were surveyed questionnaires about health and family environment, underwent physical examinations, and collected biological samples for laboratory examinations. Novelty: This is the first study to evaluate the effects of tropical climate and environment on elderly migrants from cold regions. This study has important implication for the health tourism and aging health, especially for the elderly migrants who suffered the respiratory and allergic diseases. Furthermore, this cohort study establishes a solid foundation for investigating the influence of environmental changes on elderly migrants with allergic diseases.

China's public health initiatives for climate change adaptation.

China's health gains over the past decades face potential reversals if climate change adaptation is not prioritized. China's temperature rise surpasses the global average due to urban heat islands and ecological changes, and demands urgent actions to safeguard public health. Effective adaptation need to consider China's urbanization trends, underlying non-communicable diseases, an aging population, and future pandemic threats. Climate change adaptation initiatives and strategies include urban green space, healthy indoor environments, spatial planning for cities, advance location-specific early warning systems for extreme weather events, and a holistic approach for linking carbon neutrality to health co-benefits. Innovation and technology uptake is a crucial opportunity. China's successful climate adaptation can foster international collaboration regionally and beyond.

Sanya climatic-treatment cohort profile: objectives, design, and baseline characteristics.

Background: The prevalence of allergic diseases has increased globally, climate and environment also have important effects on respiratory or allergic diseases. However, population-based studies investigating the impact of tropical climates and environments on migratory-bird old people (MBOP) are lacking. Methods/Design: For this prospective cohort study, we recruited 756 participants from the community in Sanya City, Hainan Province, China. In addition to the completed baseline survey, a follow-up survey will be conducted during the periods of October-December and March-April for the next 3 years of MBEPs from northern China who spend the winter in Sanya. We will continue to record the height, weight, and blood pressure of all participants, as well as lung function for those with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Venous blood at baseline and urine samples will be collected during follow-up. Results: A total of 756 volunteers were recruited. Their average age is 66.1 years; 32.1% of them have high-school educations, while 37.3% have graduated from college or done undergraduate studies. The top five diseases in this cohort are allergic rhinitis (57.9%); eczema, urticaria, or dermatitis (35.6%); bronchitis and bronchiectasis (35.6%); asthma (14.7%); and emphysema (11.7%). Compared with their symptoms while at their summer places of residence, rates of remission reported by participants while living in Sanya were 80.4% for allergic rhinitis, 82.3% for bronchitis and emphysema, 85.2% for asthma, 96.0% for COPD (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The baseline survey has been completed. The preliminary findings support that a tropical climate may relieve the symptoms of allergic diseases in migratory-bird old people.

Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale. DESIGN: Time series study. SETTING: 761 communities in 35 countries or territories with at least one flood event during the study period. PARTICIPANTS: Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network database, Australian Cause of Death Unit Record File, New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure, and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was daily counts of deaths. An estimation for the lag-response association between flood and daily mortality risk was modelled, and the relative risks over the lag period were cumulated to calculate overall effects. Attributable fractions of mortality due to floods were further calculated. A quasi-Poisson model with a distributed lag non-linear function was used to examine how daily death risk was associated with flooded days in each community, and then the community specific associations were pooled using random effects multivariate meta-analyses. Flooded days were defined as days from the start date to the end date of flood events. RESULTS: A total of 47.6 million all cause deaths, 11.1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths were analysed. Over the 761 communities, mortality risks increased and persisted for up to 60 days (50 days for cardiovascular mortality) after a flooded day. The cumulative relative risks for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were 1.021 (95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.036), 1.026 (1.005 to 1.047), and 1.049 (1.008 to 1.092), respectively. The associations varied across countries or territories and regions. The flood-mortality associations appeared to be modified by climate type and were stronger in low income countries and in populations with a low human development index or high proportion of older people. In communities impacted by flood, up to 0.10% of all cause deaths, 0.18% of cardiovascular deaths, and 0.41% of respiratory deaths were attributed to floods. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality increased for up to 60 days after exposure to flood and the associations could vary by local climate type, socioeconomic status, and older age.

Interactive effects of ambient fine particulate matter and ozone on daily mortality in 372 cities: two stage time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate potential interactive effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on daily mortality at global level. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 372 cities across 19 countries and regions. POPULATION: Daily counts of deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Daily mortality data during 1994-2020. Stratified analyses by co-pollutant exposures and synergy index (>1 denotes the combined effect of pollutants is greater than individual effects) were applied to explore the interaction between PM2.5 and O3 in association with mortality. RESULTS: During the study period across the 372 cities, 19.3 million deaths were attributable to all causes, 5.3 million to cardiovascular disease, and 1.9 million to respiratory disease. The risk of total mortality for a 10 µg/m3 increment in PM2.5 (lag 0-1 days) ranged from 0.47% (95% confidence interval 0.26% to 0.67%) to 1.25% (1.02% to 1.48%) from the lowest to highest fourths of O3 concentration; and for a 10 µg/m3 increase in O3 ranged from 0.04% (-0.09% to 0.16%) to 0.29% (0.18% to 0.39%) from the lowest to highest fourths of PM2.5 concentration, with significant differences between strata (P for interaction <0.001). A significant synergistic interaction was also identified between PM2.5 and O3 for total mortality, with a synergy index of 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 3.34). Subgroup analyses showed that interactions between PM2.5 and O3 on all three mortality endpoints were more prominent in high latitude regions and during cold seasons. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest a synergistic effect of PM2.5 and O3 on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, indicating the benefit of coordinated control strategies for both pollutants.

Association of residential greenness with chronotype among children.

BACKGROUND: The association between residential greenness and chronotype remains unclear, especially among children. The current study aimed to explore the associations between residential greenness and chronotype parameters in children and examine potential pathways for these associations. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, 16,421 children ages 3-12 were included. Two satellite-derived vegetation indices, i.e., the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), were used to estimate residential greenness. The mid-sleep point on a workday (MSW) and the mid-sleep point on free days (MSF) were considered. And mid-sleep time on free days adjusted for sleep debt (MSFsc) was used as an indicator of chronotype. In addition to multivariable linear regression models, subgroup analyses were conducted to explore effect modifiers, and mediation analyses were used to explore possible mediating mechanisms of air pollutants underlying the associations. RESULTS: An interquartile range (IQR) increase in both NDVI500-m and EVI500-m was significantly associated with an earlier MSFsc of -0.061 (95 % confidence interval (CI): -0.072, -0.049) and -0.054 (95 % CI: -0.066, -0.042), respectively. Non-linear dose response relationships were discovered between greenness indices and MSFsc and MSF. The results of stratified analyses showed the effect of residential greenness on MSW was stronger among primary school children and individuals with higher household income than among kindergarten children and those with lower household income. The joint mediation effects of PM2.5, PM1, PM10, NO2, and SO2 on the associations of NDVI500-m and EVI500-m with MSFsc were 89.6 % and 76.0 %, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of residential greenness may have beneficial effects on an earlier chronotype in the child population, by reducing the effects of air pollutants, especially PM2.5. Our research hopes to promote the deployment of green infrastructure and healthy urban design strategies.

Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: The global spatiotemporal pattern of mortality risk and burden attributable to tropical cyclones is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019. METHODS: The wind speed associated with cyclones from 1980 to 2019 was estimated globally through a parametric wind field model at a grid resolution of 0·5°â€ˆ× 0·5°. A total of 341 locations with daily mortality and temperature data from 14 countries that experienced at least one tropical cyclone day (a day with maximum sustained wind speed associated with cyclones ≥17·5 m/s) during the study period were included. A conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to assess the tropical cyclone-mortality association. A meta-regression model was fitted to evaluate potential contributing factors and estimate grid cell-specific tropical cyclone effects. FINDINGS: Tropical cyclone exposure was associated with an overall 6% (95% CI 4-8) increase in mortality in the first 2 weeks following exposure. Globally, an estimate of 97 430 excess deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 71 651-126 438) per decade were observed over the 2 weeks following exposure to tropical cyclones, accounting for 20·7 (95% eCI 15·2-26·9) excess deaths per 100 000 residents (excess death rate) and 3·3 (95% eCI 2·4-4·3) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio) over 1980-2019. The mortality burden exhibited substantial temporal and spatial variation. East Asia and south Asia had the highest number of excess deaths during 1980-2019: 28 744 (95% eCI 16 863-42 188) and 27 267 (21 157-34 058) excess deaths per decade, respectively. In contrast, the regions with the highest excess death ratios and rates were southeast Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. From 1980-99 to 2000-19, marked increases in tropical cyclone-related excess death numbers were observed globally, especially for Latin America and the Caribbean and south Asia. Grid cell-level and country-level results revealed further heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns such as the high and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burden in Caribbean countries or regions. INTERPRETATION: Globally, short-term exposure to tropical cyclones was associated with a significant mortality burden, with highly heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. In-depth exploration of tropical cyclone epidemiology for those countries and regions estimated to have the highest and increasing tropical cyclone-related mortality burdens is urgently needed to help inform the development of targeted actions against the increasing adverse health impacts of tropical cyclones under a changing climate. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Impacts of PM2.5 before and after COVID-19 outbreak on emergency mental disorders: A population-based quasi-experimental and case-crossover study.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a great challenge to mental health, but fine particulate matter (PM2.5), an increasingly reported risk factor for mental disorders, has been greatly alleviated during the pandemic in many countries. It remains unknown whether COVID-19 outbreak can affect the association between PM2.5 exposure and the risk of mental disorders. This study aimed to investigate the associations of total and cause-specific mental disorders with PM2.5 exposure before and after the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Data on daily emergency department visits (EDVs) and hospitalizations of mental disorders from 2016 to 2021 were obtained from Anhui Mental Health Center for Hefei city. An interrupted time series analysis was used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on EDVs and hospitalizations of mental disorders. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was employed to evaluate the association of mental disorders with PM2.5 exposure before and after the COVID-19 outbreak, especially in the three months following the COVID-19 outbreak. After COVID-19 outbreak, there was an immediate and significant decrease in total mental disorders, including a reduction of 15% (95% CI: 3%-26%) in EDVs and 44% (95% CI: 36%-51%) in hospitalizations. PM2.5 exposure was associated with increased risk of EDVs and hospitalizations for total and cause-specific mental disorders (schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders; neurotic, stress-related, and somatoform disorders) before COVID-19 outbreak, but this PM2.5-related risk elevation significantly decreased after COVID-19 outbreak, with greater risk reduction at the first month after the outbreak. However, young people (0-45 years) were still vulnerable to PM2.5 exposure after the COVID-19 outbreak. This study first reveals that the risk of PM2.5-related emergency mental disorders decreased after the COVID-19 outbreak in China. The low concentration of PM2.5 might benefit mental health and greater efforts are required to mitigate air pollution in the post-COVID-19 era.